The impact of climate change on agro-industrial production in the Kirovohrad region

Abstract

Goal. To find out how climate change affects agro-industrial production in the Kirovohrad region, which is located in the Steppe zone. Methods. To conduct the theoretical part of the study, a system analysis and a logical-analytical approach were used. Statistical, variant, computational-constructive, and economic-mathematical methods were used to perform calculations. Results. Analysis of the range of deviations of the average annual temperature in the Steppe zone as a whole and the amount of precipitation, as well as the results of comparing the agricultural production index in the Kirovohrad region, indicated that the climatic factor during the study period (2000–2022) remained one of the significant determinants of agro-industrial production. Analysis of the dynamics of the average annual indicators of the agricultural production index revealed a tendency towards significant volatility in the development of the agricultural sector, which was to some extent related to the factor of the influence of extreme climate changes in individual years of observations of the study period. In particular, this concerned the rather high variability of the agricultural production index according to the results of data analysis for the entire period under study and comparison of individual data for 2003, 2007, 2012, 2017, and 2020. To determine the potential economic losses or benefits of agro-industrial production from the impact of the climate factor, a specially developed formula should be used: the average annual sales price of 1 ton of grain, leguminous crops, or other agricultural crop should first be multiplied by the estimated value of the standard deviation of production for the last at least 10–20 years, and then by a value multiple of the statistically possible deviation. Conclusions. It was established that under the existing trends of climate change, agro-industrial production would not be able to function normally without the use of modern irrigation systems, which was due to the low amount of precipitation and the unevenness of its fall. Kirovohrad region is one of the regions that has one of the highest indicators of variability of gross yields of major crops due to the impact of weather conditions and climate change. A heat map of changes in the average annual temperature (°C) in different natural and climatic zones and a hydrological map of changes in the distribution of precipitation for 2000–2022 was developed. The methodology for assessing the impact of climate factors on the economy of the region was substantiated, which allowed for the establishment of forecast losses under adverse weather conditions — they could reach 15–20% of the total gross agricultural output.